On paper, Week 0 didn't look particularly appealing.
All four games featured double-digit spreads and two of the favorites scored more than three touchdowns. When the dust settled, all four underdogs had covered their performance, one had won outright and two had come close to pulling off an upset.
The Steamers got annihilated yesterday. All four games shifted to one side by more than a field goal, and if a bettor blindly followed the move, they went 1-3 ATS. Even those who shape the market took a hit (the never-ending debate over CLV can begin again).
As we enter the first full week of college football, it's important to note that these numbers have been crunched. The big games have been happening for months and the other contests have been added along the way. There's not much meat on the bone at this point.
But what would be the fun if we didn't try to take apart the carcasses of the betting board?
This week, we'll go over just some of the biggest line moves we've seen this offseason.
This column will give you a first look at the upcoming week of college football.
Every Sunday, book publishers across the country release the opening numbers for college teams. Here we show you the first line movements to see when the opening games take place. You'll get a good look at how the market makers view certain teams, the impact injuries have on the market, and more.
For Week 1 college football betting splits, additional articles and more, visit our College Football Hub.
LINE MOVEMENTS WEEK 1
Florida International Panthers @ Indiana Hoosiers
Opening: IND (-18.5, 51.5) | Current: IND (-21.5, 51)
Indiana was popular to bet on in the offseason because it surpassed its win total, and that support appears to be spilling over into the regular season as well. Curt Cignetti is in his first season as head coach, and Kurtis Rourke is one of the stronger transfer quarterbacks in the country. FIU has eight starters on offense and a returning quarterback in Keyone Jenkins. However, the market is behind Indiana early in the season, and bettors have missed the boat on the favorite here.
UConn Huskies @ Maryland Terrapins
Opening: MARY (-24.5, 47.5) | Current: MARY (-20.5, 45.5)
Maryland is in a season of change, so it's no surprise that the market is moving against the team in Week 1. As of now, the Terrapins' starting quarterback is still unknown. Billy Edwards, MJ Morris and Cameron Edge are considered the top candidates for the job. Given the uncertainty surrounding the most important position, the market appears to be downgrading Maryland. Still, UConn deserves some support. The Huskies return 13 starters — eight on defense — and Jim Mora is in his third season at the helm.
Kennesaw State Owls @ UTSA Roadrunners
Opening: UTSA (-21.5, 49.5) | Current: UTSA (-24.5, 49.5)
By all accounts, Kennesaw State will be one of the worst — if not the worst — teams in the country. If that's true, it's understandable that the market would jump early in the season and see the Owls fade. Steve Makinen's projections are for a 29-point spread, so we could see even more movement in UTSA's favor before kickoff this week.
Ohio Bobcats @ Syracuse Orange
Opening: SYR (-13, 47.5) | Current: SYR (-17.5, 47)
Ohio is in the midst of a complete rebuild. The Bobcats have only six starters back, Kurtis Rourke is gone, and the program's top three tacklers from last season – a group that allowed just 15.8 points per game – are gone. Syracuse is a team that many believe could be much better this season. The Orange have 17 starters back and a big transfer in Kyle McCord at quarterback.
Georgia State Panthers @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Opening: GT (-18.5, 57.5) | Current: GT (-22, 57.5)
Georgia Tech pulled off a huge upset win over Florida State last week. The Yellow Jackets limited the Seminoles to 291 total yards and 3.2 yards per carry. The market was all Georgia Tech in Week 0, so it should come as no surprise that we've seen a move in that direction again. Many will likely view this as a “disappointment” moment after Saturday's win, and that could lead to a move back toward Georgia State.
James Madison Dukes @ Charlotte 49ers
Open: JMU (-11.5, 51.5) | Current: JMU (-6.5, 51.5)
James Madison was 11-2 SU/8-5 ATS last season and one of the best stories in college football. This season, head coach Curt Cignetti and quarterback Jordan McCloud are gone. Seventeen starters are back, but how much have Cignetti and McCloud contributed to this program in wins on the margin? The market seems to think the bookies are overpricing this Dukes team, and that's why we're getting a five-point line shift towards the underdog here.
Boise State Broncos @ Georgia Southern Eagles
Open: BSU (-10, 57.5) | Current: BSU (-13, 56.5)
The market has added a field goal to the point differential for Boise State, which plays in a true away situation on Saturday. The Broncos were the most popular team in the Group of Five during the offseason. This trend toward the Broncos is consistent with the support Boise State received in future markets such as total wins, conference titles and more. The Broncos will likely be a well-supported team early on.
Colorado State Rams @ Texas Longhorns
Opening: TEX (-36.5, 59) | Current: TEX (-32.5, 59.5)
Texas' best running back – CJ Baxter – as well as its potential third runner – Christian Clark – have been out with injuries in recent weeks. Those injuries alone aren't worth a four-point lead against a Group of Five opponent. There was already some skepticism about the Longhorns, as they have lost some of the productivity of last season's playoff team.
Nevada Wolf Pack @ Troy Trojans
Opening: TROY (-15.5, 47) | Current: TROY (-9.5, 46)
Nevada showed some fighting spirit in its loss to SMU on Saturday. DraftKings had this lineup hung at Troy -12 after the Wolf Pack's loss to the Mustangs, and the market still pushed it down 2.5 points. The same market moved the line for Nevada against SMU a full touchdown toward the Mustangs. Such a jump seems, on the surface, an overreaction.
UCLA Bruins @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Open: UCLA (-18.5, 55.5) | Current: UCLA (-13.5, 55.5)
That line has been dropping since it was set up in the middle of the summer. The Rainbow Warriors, however, hadn't played a game yet. Now we've seen Hawaii play – an ugly win over Delaware State as 40.5-point favorites – and they're without leading receiver Steven McBride. Maybe that line drops even further on Steam Chasers, but I'd venture to guess we finish at -14 or higher in favor of UCLA.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Open: TAM (PK, 49) | Current: TAM (-2.5, 46.5)
Notre Dame was already in the process of rebuilding its offensive line this season, then lost left tackle Charles Jagusah to a torn pectoral muscle. Traveling with a rebuilt offensive line and facing one of the best front sevens in the country is a big deal, and that's why that number is down to -3 in several shops and will likely be closed there on Saturday.
