The most important thing is that no concrete result is assumed before negotiations, says Angelika Wilmen in an interview.
Ms Wilmen, you have been monitoring the initiatives towards a ceasefire and peace for Ukraine from the very beginning. Do you currently see promising advances?
We find the Brazilian-Chinese peace plan, which was presented in May, interesting. It includes six points. According to China and Brazil, dialogue and negotiations are the only solution. It is noteworthy that Switzerland now also supports this proposal, after a reference to the UN Charter was included. This will break the previous bloc between the Western camp and the states of the “Global South” for the first time.
One objection is that Russian President Vladimir Putin could end the war overnight. As long as he is not interested, there will be no negotiations.
Russia has repeatedly signaled that it would be willing to engage in dialogue and negotiations. But you have to say: under your conditions. And they are very far-reaching. For example, Russia's territorial claims to Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Conversely, Ukraine also sets prerequisites. Both sides have to make compromises, otherwise there will be no negotiations.
What criteria must be met for an initiative to have a chance of negotiating?
We think the most important thing is that there is no concrete result of the negotiations. It is often said in the media: The Chinese initiative is meaningless because it does not explain what the result should be. But it is toxic if you anticipate the outcome of the negotiations.
When is the right time for negotiations?
We know from other conflicts that negotiations often take place while war is still going on. This has so far been neglected with the argument that Ukraine's negotiating position must first be strengthened.
To person
Angelica Wilmen heads the Berlin office of IPPNW, the International Physicians for the Defense of Nuclear War. Wilmen is co-author of the brochure “Ceasefire and Peace for Ukraine”, which has now been updated in its seventh edition. They can be downloaded free of charge from the IPPNW homepage.
Can military support from the West help force Russia to the negotiating table?
We warned from the beginning: the longer the war lasts, the more difficult it will be. So many people have already been killed and wounded. For this reason we refer to the Istanbul Agreement, which did not come to fruition.
You are talking about March 2022…
Yes. Many experts say that a negotiated peace was already relatively close. Various factors contributed to the breakdown of negotiations. Butscha's war crimes became known. But it was also reported that the USA and Great Britain were said to have urged Ukraine to continue fighting and not to engage in negotiations. That was a mistake. Back then, Ukraine was in a better negotiating position than it is today because the Russian leadership had not managed to overrun Ukraine. Now the position for Ukraine has become significantly worse.
What concessions would have to be made?
It's about concessions from Ukraine, but not only. The West also had a lot to offer Russia in negotiations. For example, the gradual withdrawal of sanctions in return for certain negotiation steps. Or an inclusion of Russia in the G7/G8 circle. Or disarmament negotiations, because the arms control treaties are on hold. There is now a new negotiating point to offer: that no medium-range missiles will be stationed in Germany. What is interesting is what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has now said in the Ukrainian parliament: that Russian control over Ukrainian territories could be accepted for a certain period of time. These are new sounds. This has a lot to do with the US election and the fear that the US could stop its aid.
What could the new course achieve under US President Donald Trump?
Of course, this puts a lot of pressure on Ukraine. If the USA were to stop all or part of its military aid, it is clear that the Europeans cannot replace it. Added to this are Russia’s military successes. The US polling institute Gallup found that 52 percent of Ukrainians are in favor of negotiations, i.e. more than half. That was only a quarter two years ago. People are war-weary and exhausted from three years of war and the destruction of civilian infrastructure. It is high time for negotiations.
Interview: Pitt von Bebenburg
