Abu Muhammad al-Julani and his Islamist HTS are the new strengthening men in Damascus. The leader is on the US terror list, but that could soon change. Russia is also approaching the jihadists. Israel, however, does not.
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- The Islamist HTS and its leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani control Damascus and other important cities.
- Al-Julani has been on a US terror list since 2013: Washington is now discussing whether he could be removed from it.
- Moscow is also changing course: Russia no longer calls the HTS “terrorists” but “armed resistance”.
- The Kremlin must negotiate to preserve a last chance to keep the bases in Syria, experts agree.
- Israel is playing it safe because of the jihadists: Jerusalem has already carried out over 300 air strikes in Syria and is reportedly also advancing on the ground.
It is Hai'at Tahrir ash-Sham that launched the latest offensive in Syria, and it is also the HTS that enters Damascus eleven days later. Without this group, which brings together various Islamist militias, Bashar al-Assad would not have been overthrown.
It is understood that HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani is now a sought-after man. The USA has actually been interested in him for a long time: information that leads to his capture is worth a whopping ten million dollars to Washington, because in 2013 the State Department put the man on the list of global terrorists.
The reason for the bounty: According to the USA, Al-Julani took part in “several terrorist attacks in Syria”, kidnapped Kurds and massacred Druze. It is said that he has sworn allegiance to Al-Qaeda and is a hardliner.
Will the US remove al-Jaulani from the terror list?
Now the same wanted man and his people have conquered Damascus. Washington has noted that al-Julani has shown himself to be moderate since the offensive began. Even when Aleppos was taken, there were hardly any problems with the jihadists: the Christians were able to hold church services and prepare for Christmas. In Damascus too, he has now allegedly urged his people to behave.
Joe Biden's administration will face the reality on Syrian soil in its final days: “There is a big scramble to see if, how and when we can delist HTS,” an anonymous source said. Politically”. The president, but also the foreign minister, could easily remove the name from the list, it is said.
Natasha Hall from Center for Strategic and International Studies recalls that the HTS “previously actually fought the so-called Islamic State in many clashes in eastern Syria.” The Middle East expert believes that this was probably coordinated with foreign powers.
Russia: Completely new sounds
Moscow also has to adapt to the new conditions – and Vladimir Putin has a lot to lose. Because the Kremlin has always stuck by Assad, Russia is already seen as the big loser of the coup, along with Iran.
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The language reveals that a change in thinking has taken place: While the rebels were described as “terrorists” by Russia before December 8th, since the fall of Damascus they have been known as “armed opposition”.
A former Russian diplomat says Putin will approach the matter pragmatically: “Moscow prefers to negotiate with those who have power and control,” explains Nikolai Sokov in the Guardian. “I assume Russia wants to hold onto its bases through negotiations if it can,” adds Dara Massicot from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Resources they can offer: money, natural resources, oil and gas, a limited number of mercenaries,” Massicot explains. “The question is whether the Syrian coalition would accept something from them.” They will not have forgotten the attacks by the Russian Air Force: the Kremlin faces difficult talks.
Israel: How far does Jerusalem's buffer zone extend?
While the USA and Russia try to come to terms with the new situation, Israel will not take any chances with the jihadists' military successes. Since the fall of Damascus, Jerusalem's air force has been bombing targets such as Assad's chemical weapons factories and weapons depots, as well as the capital itself.
Photos circulating on social media show destroyed missile launchers, helicopters and fighter jets. Since the change of power, Israel is said to have carried out 310 air strikes alone: HTS fighters are also likely to have been targeted. But Israel's army is apparently also fighting for ground on the ground: from the Golan Heights it is apparently setting up a corridor on the border with Lebanon.
Israel itself has denied reports that Israeli tanks are near Damascus. A military spokesman wrote on X that reports of forces approaching the capital were “completely false.” Turkey has nevertheless sharply criticized the Israeli military's advance into Syrian territory.
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The advance was a violation of a 1974 agreement on a Syrian buffer zone, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said today. Ankara accuses Israel of displaying the “mentality of an occupier” – and is dying at a time when peace and stability in Syria were emerging as a possibility. In the statement, the ministry underlined Türkiye's support for Syria's “sovereignty, political unity and territorial integrity.”
