Nick Chubb will officially open the season on the Cleveland Browns’ PUP list.
This announcement is not surprising, as Chubb is retiring after a serious injury. In Week 2 of the 2023 season, Chubb tore both his anterior and posterior cruciate ligaments after taking a hit to his left knee from Pittsburgh's Minkah Fitzpatrick, which sidelined him for the rest of the year. Two surgeries were required to repair the damage.
However, reports on Chubb in camp have been positive and fantasy managers have drafted Chubb after the 7th round in hopes that he can lead them to the fantasy playoffs.
It's still worth a try, but first let's discuss how to handle the Browns backfield in your fantasy drafts.
Jerome Ford is the starting running back to begin the NFL season for Cleveland. Pierre Strong Jr. was the starting running back after Ford in the first preseason game and started the second. He looked like he could be the next runner-up before suffering an upper-body injury in practice and did not play in the final preseason game.
D'onta Foreman missed the first preseason game due to an injury, but played in the second game and looked to be a goal-line option for the Browns. Unfortunately, he also suffered a rib injury during Saturday's preseason game.
The good news is that for fantasy managers, Ford is the clear candidate the Browns should draft to start the season. He currently has an ADP of 114, usually around the ninth round. That's excellent value if you believe Chubb won't return or plan to draft the duo.
I'll continue to bet on Chubb's return, and this news should give us another discount, even if it's not a surprise. Even if Chubb had returned in the first four weeks of the season, he wouldn't have been eligible to start.
Chubb will return this season. Why? In the offseason, the Browns cut Chubb's salary by about $4 million, but gave him the opportunity to make it up with bonuses. In other words, Chubb has every reason to return for his 28th season.
Will he be able to get out of there like he used to? That's the four million dollar question.
Let's look at a similar case study from last year. Jonathan Taylor suffered a similar injury in Week 4 of the 2022 season, and fantasy managers had to decide what risk they could tolerate in signing him for 2023. Taylor began the season on the PUP list and started Week 5 for the Colts, but didn't return to form until Week 7. He also missed Weeks 13-15 before finishing strong in Week 18 of the season and would have been RB3 in PPR leagues (unfortunately, most fantasy leagues don't factor in Week 18). Taylor finished the season as RB33 overall, but as RB8 per game in PPR leagues.
If Chubb were to return to form in Week 7 like Taylor did, would he be worth an eighth-round pick? That depends on your risk tolerance, but I'm willing to make a bet if there's a clear handcuff available in Jerome Ford.
If you don't believe Chubb will return, Ford should move even higher in your queue.
Chubb had four consecutive seasons with over 1,000 rushing yards before his injury in 2023. His best season to date came in 2022, totaling 1,734 all-purpose yards and 13 touchdowns.
The Browns averaged 118.6 rushing yards per game without Chubb last season, ranking 11th. Ford, who filled in as RB1 for much of Chubb's absence, was selected as RB17 overall in 2023.
Looking for more analysis as you prepare for draft day? Don't miss the wealth of information available for free in Sports Illustrated's 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit.
