Morning update: It's inflation, stupid!

https://ui-avatars.com/api/[email protected]&background=64&color=fff&font-size=0.5&rounded=false&format=pngby — December 12, 2024 in twitter

Good morning,

Does the name James Carville mean anything to you? If not: Don't worry, this is not an educational gap.

But you've probably heard the saying that Carville – once a campaign advisor to former US President Bill Clinton – coined a good 32 years ago. At least it entered the textbook of all political spin doctors. “It's the economy, stupid!” Carville said at the time – it's the economy, stupid.

Translated: Economic data determines the success or failure of an election. With this thesis, Carville led his boss Clinton to victory in an economic election campaign in 1992.

It is a thesis that has only just been confirmed by reality. Or should it even be adjusted, sharpened: “It’s inflation, stupid”? Most of Donald Trump's voters cited at least inflation as the most important reason for their decision. And a few days ago, a study by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy showed that high inflation and an economic crisis caused and are causing an increase in the share of votes for populist parties across all industrialized countries.
Why is this interesting today? Because the highest body of the European Central Bank is meeting again this Thursday in Frankfurt. The Governing Council, 24 men and two women, whose main task is to combat inflation. Today they decide on the most important means of achieving this: the key interest rate in the euro zone. And with their decision they move precisely in this area of ​​tension between worries about a return of inflation on the one hand – and those about an impending recession on the other.

According to all forecasts, the monetary authorities are likely to cut the key interest rate today – for the fourth time this year. A reduction is possible because the fear of a return of inflation is no longer as great. And so the central bankers hope to support the European economy a little with a lower key interest rate. Given the weakness of the economy, some analysts are even calling for a major interest rate cut – not just by 0.25, but by 0.5 percentage points.

Will it really happen? I'm skeptical. But we will report as always.

Have a good day

Florian Neuhann, team leader for economics/finance

Situation in Syria

Baerbock presents eight-point plan: In the ZDF Today Journal, the Foreign Minister talks about the Federal Government's plans to help in Syria – and the responsibility that Germany bears in this regard.

UN expert: Israel's attacks violate international law: There is “absolutely no basis in international law” for the air strikes by the Israeli army, said UN special rapporteur Ben Saul. “If that were the case, it would be a recipe for global chaos.”

Celebrations in Damascus: After the end of the regime, the relief in Syria is enormous. People hope for a better future.

What is still important today

Election of the Prime Minister in Thuringia: A new prime minister is to be elected there today. CDU politician Mario Voigt is running unopposed. The 47-year-old will lead the country's first blackberry coalition made up of the CDU, BSW and SPD, which does not have its own majority in the state parliament.

Day of the Prime Minister's Conference: The country heads discuss, among other things, the future financing of public broadcasting. Following the reforms that have already been approved, what is now being debated is a system change to the current financing model.

Meeting of EU foreign ministers in Berlin: The foreign ministers of Germany, France, Poland, Italy, Spain, Great Britain and Ukraine meet in Berlin. Topics include the situation in Ukraine and Syria.

Meeting of EU interior ministers: The interior ministers of the 27 EU states will meet this Thursday to decide on the full Schengen accession of Bulgaria and Romania. Since March of this year, controls for Bulgarians and Romanians at the air and sea borders of the Schengen area have been lifted. Now the country's borders should also become control-free.

Champions League

Borussia Dortmund was able to overturn a deficit twice against FC Barcelona, ​​but ended up losing 2-3. Bitter besides the defeat: Nico Schlotterbeck was injured. The highlights of the game in the video:
Dortmund's Serhou Guirassy in action during the game against FC Barcelona.

12/11/2024 | 2:56 mins

Here you can find all UEFA games and all goals Champions League as well as detailed summaries of the games with German participation.

Said

Our children rely on us.

Ursula von der Leyen in a FAZ guest article in 2019

Five years ago, the EU summit in Brussels approved the EU Commission's “Green Deal” on climate protection. It is intended to help make the EU economy more sustainable by 2050 and reduce climate-damaging emissions.

More headlines

The news in the video

today Xpress

Short news on ZDF – always up to date12/12/2024 | 2:00 mins

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This is what the weather will be like today

The weather on Thursday December 12th, 2024

Source: ZDF

On Thursday there may be a light drizzle or a bit of snow in the northern half due to a dense cloud cover. In the south it remains dry and the sun appears at times. 0 to 6 degrees are achieved.

Compiled by the ZDFheute editorial team

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