Werner Vogels, Chief Technology Officer of Amazon, has been one of the most influential voices when it comes to innovations and trends in the technology industry for years. The computer scientist from the Netherlands, who came to Amazon in 2004 and took on the role of CTO a year later, is considered a seismographer for groundbreaking technology topics not only within the company. With his proximity to developments in Silicon Valley and his deep roots in Amazon's technological history, Vogels is someone you like to listen to at technology conferences. He is often right, but sometimes it takes some time for his predictions to come true.
In his opinion pieces he also gives future-oriented outlooks on trends – one reason why his assessments are so valued in the industry. This year, however, his statements read strikingly differently than in previous years. It's less about technical trends and innovations and more about the changing role of technology and the transformation of the world of work.
Meta-topics such as sustainability are in the foreground
Werner Vogels explains that society is facing enormous change in terms of sustainability and equal opportunities. He believes that clean and CO2-free energy supplies can drive progress and that artificial intelligence can help make work more meaningful and efficient without us losing our raison d'être at work. Vogels sees a change in values, as Gen Z and Millennial employees in particular are increasingly asking the question of meaning.
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A recent study by Harvard Business School even shows that university graduates are willing to forego their salary if their jobs have a positive social impact in return. However, this trend is increasingly no longer limited to young employees – studies show that employees of all age groups are increasingly striving for jobs that are socially and ecologically meaningful.
Sustainability-oriented tasks are becoming more important and even traditional jobs are increasingly integrating new social and sustainable principles. This means that companies that recognize this change and provide meaningful work will attract the best talent and thrive in the long term.
New forms of energy should keep the cloud running
In addition – and this is probably the most technical part of his predictions this year, he sees wind and solar as central building blocks of the upcoming energy transition and (exciting from a German perspective) also includes small modular nuclear reactors as a flexible and reliable solution. This is also likely to have an impact on the data consumption of the now indispensable cloud offerings – which include Amazon's AWS solution. Hyperscale data centers and intelligent load management systems optimize their energy consumption and the combination of innovative technology and qualified workforce will enable a sustainable energy future, said the Amazon CTO.
Vogels is surprisingly optimistic when it comes to the topics of fake news and disinformation. Although he is aware that disinformation represents a major challenge for our society, he also believes that there will be sensible and effective solutions.
In addition to open source intelligence (OSINT), which could help process and classify information, he sees AI-supported tools such as TrustNet or GeoSpy as solutions for fast and reliable fact checking and improving public discourse. Vogels believed that access to these technologies could promote an informed society and restore trust in media and institutions. In connection with this, Vogels also believed in a change in social media as we use it today.
Edge computing for dealing with crises
In two points, Vogels is closer to the usual technology line and moves away from the meta-topics. He believed that the power of hyperlocal, community-sourced data will fundamentally change how we as a society respond to crises or disasters. This shift will redefine disaster management from a reactive, top-down model to a proactive, decentralized and community-driven model.
In this context, edge computing, including the preprocessing of information before it is aggregated in the cloud, will play a larger role than before. The good thing about it: Decentralized data processing at the respective touchpoint could help increase the resilience of IT systems and thus make crises more manageable in an emergency and save lives.
Intention-driven technology contributes to a new focus
The last point is also about resilience and digital detox – actually a playing field that is atypical for birds. The Amazon CTO believes that in the future people will have to be particularly careful not to lose sight of the balance between digital and analogue. Vogels sees a shift “that is redefining our relationship with consumer technology. As more people seek refuge from constant distraction, devices are emerging that emphasize mindfulness, intention, and deep thought over a barrage of fleeting stimuli.”
In the coming year and beyond, technology could also help, rather than distract, people. Schools and organizations, for example, rely on digital deceleration in the form of cell phone bans or focus times, an attitude that many educators in Germany could also agree with.
Vogels cites the document creation process at Amazon as an example. Regardless of position or rank, good ideas are expected to be put on paper and transformed into a compelling narrative. Once the document is finished, everyone meets, reads it, and takes notes before discussing it. This process forces everyone to be present – to concentrate on the task.
When it comes to device use and product management, it is increasingly about staying on a task without distractions instead of diverting attention. This trend can now be seen on a larger scale, believes Vogels and cites minimalist cell phones as examples, which are little more than telephone and provide text functions; Cameras that focus on the craft of photography rather than sharing; and independent music players that allow you to enjoy music without the constant barrage of messages and notifications.
Lastly, Vogels talks about how many successful executives consciously go without their phone in the first hour of their day in order to strengthen their cognitive abilities – a practice that is supported by experts at Stanford Lifestyle Medicine.
Combining technical progress with humanity
The bottom line is that it is about combining progress with more humanity and using technology as a tool for a better world. Companies that embrace this change will not only be successful, but also have a positive impact on society. Anyone who is familiar with Vogels' statements over the last few years can already see a change towards a more conscious use of technology and a departure from the usual “higher, faster, further”. His trend report is worth reading again this year (here in the full text in English).
