Spain's socialist government is under pressure. For two months now, the opposition has been demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchéz, who is said to be involved in a corruption scandal involving former Transport Minister José Luis Ábalos. Sanchéz denies the allegations – and continues to work consistently to achieve his political goals.
This is particularly true for immigration policy. The head of government and his Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE; Spanish Socialist Workers' Party), which forms a minority government together with the left-wing Sumar party alliance, are adamantly sticking to their welcome course. “We Spaniards are the children of immigration, we will not be the parents of xenophobia,” Sanchéz recently warned in parliament. His migration minister, Elma Saiz, told the newspaper El País: “In Spain it is no longer enough to be non-racist. You have to be anti-racist.”
300,000 illegal immigrants per year are expected to stay – at least
Shortly before, Saiz had appeared in front of the cameras with a smile and announced a comprehensive reform of the immigration regulations. Starting in May, the government will issue residence and work permits to around 300,000 illegal immigrants each year. In addition to students, families and foreign job seekers, rejected asylum seekers in particular will benefit from the new rules, which are initially intended to apply until 2027.
You only have to meet the requirement of having been in the country illegally for more than six months at the time the new regulation comes into force. It is unclear how many migrants are currently living illegally in the country of 48 million inhabitants. However, the Interior Ministry states that 54,000 migrants arrived in Spain without valid documents in the year alone.
According to Eurostat, the EU's statistical office, around 800,000 asylum applications have been submitted in Spain since 2015. In the first half of 2024 there were almost 90,000. The country is one of the leaders in the EU in this category.
Migrants must have entered the country before November 2021
Prime Minister Sanchéz had already traveled to Africa in October and signed an agreement on so-called circular migration with Mauritania, Senegal and Gambia. The agreements are aimed at migrants who come to Spain as seasonal workers and then return to their home country “with the contractual guarantee that they will be called up again the following season,” according to the Interior Ministry. The agreement does not specify how many immigrants should come this way each year.
Another planned law, on the other hand, provides for a very specific number. In April, the Spanish lower house passed with a large majority – only the right-wing Vox party voted against – a popular initiative calling for legal residence status for 500,000 illegal migrants. The only condition: The migrants must have entered the country before November 2021. It is still unclear when the Senate, the second chamber of the Catholic Parliament, will vote on the project.
The government cites two reasons for its migration-friendly course. On the one hand, it appeals to humanity and refers to times when hundreds of thousands of Spaniards emigrated to seek a better life in other countries, for example during the Franco dictatorship or in the wake of the 2012 economic crisis.
Baby boomers are retiring
The argument that is still predominantly put forward is the aging of society and the supposed shortage of skilled workers. Migration Minister Saiz speaks of 250,000 new workers needed each year. Economist Javier Díaz-Giménez recently explained that in the next 20 years, “according to current calculations, 14.1 million Spaniards will retire.”
There is no alternative to mass immigration, “if the gross domestic product is to grow and we want to pay the pensions for all the baby boomers who will soon be retiring,” emphasized Díaz-Giménez. The Spanish central bank came to a similar conclusion in April and published a report that said Spain would need around 25 million immigrants over the next 30 years.
Economist Carmen Gonzales Enriques from the think tank “Real Instituto Elcano” takes a different position. They stated earlier this year that the majority of immigrants work in higher productivity sectors of the economy and that the employment rate of immigrants is lower than the native population.
Right-wing party Vox can only score points with voters to a limited extent
Due to immigration since the turn of the millennium, the population has grown by 20 percent, without the per capita economic output having come close to that of neighboring European countries. “We have to rethink the connection between immigration and the economic and social model that our country wants,” she demanded – and pointed out that the high immigration numbers are not only due to the decisions of the Socialists, but also to the time in government of the Christian Democratic Party Partido Popular (PP; People's Party) decline.
The only party that speaks out against mass migration – in 2024, according to the National Statistics Institute, the proportion of foreigners rose to a record 13.5 percent – is the real Vox. However, their reservations are not directed against immigrants per se, but primarily against migrants from African and Muslim countries.
The right-wing party led by its leader Santiago Abascal expressly welcomes Latin Americans because of their shared culture, history and language. Despite this differentiated approach, Vox only scores partially well with voters. According to the Politico portal, Abascal and Co. are currently at 14 percent in the polls. That would be an increase of two percentage points compared to the 2023 parliamentary election. However, the gap to the PSOE (28 percent in the surveys) and the PP (34 percent) was still huge.
From JF issue 51/24.
