After the break of the traffic light government, everything in Germany boils down to new elections. On November 6th, Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Christian Lindner as Finance Minister. The FDP then withdrew from the coalition. This was preceded by a dispute over the government's future course – especially when it comes to the economy and budget. Scholz would now like to raise a vote of confidence in the Bundestag in January 2025, thereby clearing the way for a new election, which should take place by the end of March at the latest.
Which parties can hope for success in the election? Various opinion research institutes regularly conduct surveys on how people would vote if there were a federal election next Sunday. The Union of CDU and CSU with candidate for chancellor Friedrich Merz is currently doing best in this regard. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) could also be represented in the Bundestag for the first time. According to surveys, the FDP has to fear failing at the five percent hurdle.
This article gives you an overview of what the survey results for the 2025 federal election currently look like.
Surveys for the 2025 federal election: Current survey results from the Sunday question
The Sunday question from the opinion research institute gives an impression of the current mood in Germany. However, the election results in the 2025 federal election could of course be completely different. This is simply because many voters are still undecided or are only deciding at short notice.
The opinion research institute Forsa conducted a survey on December 17, 2024 on behalf of RTL/n-tv published. 2,501 eligible voters were surveyed by telephone. The results were as follows:
- CDU/CSU: 30 percent (-1.0)
- AfD: 19 percent (+1)
- SPD: 17 percent (±0)
- Greens: 13 percent (±0)
- BSW: 4 percent (±0)
- FDP: 4 percent (±0)
- Left: 3 percent (±0)
- Other: 10 percent (±0)
The survey by the Elections Research Group on behalf of ZDFPolitbarometer drew the following picture on December 6, 2024. A total of 1,433 people were surveyed by phone and online:
- CDU/CSU: 33 percent (+1.0)
- AfD: 17 percent (−1.0)
- SPD: 15 percent (-1.0)
- Greens: 14 percent (+2)
- BSW: 5 percent (±0)
- FDP: 4 percent (+1.0)
- Other: 11 percent (-2)
This is also the current federal election survey by the market and social research institute INSA, which dates back to November 30, 2024. 1201 respondents took part in the telephone survey:
- CDU/CSU: 32 percent (−0.5)
- AfD: 18 percent (−1.5)
- SPD: 15 percent (±0)
- Greens: 13 percent (+2)
- BSW: 8 percent (+0.5)
- FDP: 5 percent (+0.5)
- Other: 9 percent (-1)
What is the path to new elections in Germany?
On January 15, 2025, Chancellor Olaf Scholz would like to ask the Bundestag for a vote of confidence. If he does not receive a majority, “the Federal President can, on the proposal of the Federal Chancellor, dissolve the Bundestag within twenty-one days,” as Article 68 of the Basic Law states.
This is also Olaf Scholz's plan to clear the way to new elections. This is a so-called “false question of trust”, as the conscious aim is not to reach the majority – that is quickly certain.
If Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolves the Bundestag, the new election must take place within 60 days, Article 39 was regulated in the Basic Law. Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the cabinet without the FDP will remain in office until a new government is formed.
How do people vote in a federal election?
The 2023 electoral law reform will apply for the first time in the 2025 federal election, which will legally limit the number of representatives to 630. Overhang and compensation mandates no longer exist, as explained on www.bundestag.de.
However, each eligible voter still casts two votes: the first vote does not elect a party, but rather a person from the voter's constituency. The second vote is awarded to parties that draw up state lists – i.e. lists with candidates from the respective federal state.
Due to the electoral law reform, only the second vote result is decisive for how many seats a party is entitled to in the Bundestag. These seats initially go to the constituency candidates of the parties that have won the relative majority of the first votes in their constituency. The amount of voting shares determines the order. If all constituency candidates have received a seat and the corresponding party is entitled to additional seats according to the second vote result, these seats will be awarded to the applicants from the state lists.
However, if the time votes are not sufficient for all of a party's constituency candidates to be taken into account, those with the weakest first vote results will be left empty-handed. This is the biggest change brought about by electoral law reform. Previously, all successful direct candidates had definitely received a seat in the Bundestag, which had ensured additional seats through compensatory and overhang mandates. Now it can happen that no candidate from a constituency is represented in the Bundestag.
“An exception to this applies to non-party constituency candidates: They win a seat directly based on a relative majority of the first votes in the constituency,” it says on www.bundestag.de.
By the way, the Federal Chancellor cannot be elected directly. This choice then lies with the new designated members of the Bundestag.
Election results from the last federal election
The last federal election took place in 2021. The 20th German Bundestag was elected on September 26, 2021. At that time, according to the Federal Agency for Civic Education, the SPD received 25.7 percent, significantly more votes than the CDU, which came in second with 18.9 percent of the vote.
76.6 percent of the 61,181,072 eligible voters took part in the election. Voter turnout increased for the third time in a row. Postal voting in particular has experienced a high. The Federal Agency for Civic Education recorded a new record there.
According to the Federal Returning Officer, these were the election results from 2021:
- SPD: 25.7 percent
- CDU: 18.9 percent
- Greens: 14.8 percent
- FDP: 11.5 percent
- AfD: 10.3 percent
- CSU: 5.2 percent
- Left: 4.9 percent
- Week of pregnancy: 0.1 percent
- Other: 8.6 percent
