The NFL's roster cuts on Tuesday aren't just an indication of who will make significant contributions for the 49ers this season.
It is also an opportunity to reflect on past draft years. San Francisco in particular has had a checkered history in the NFL Draft under current coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch (since 2017).
The 49ers have found diamonds in the rough in Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy and fifth-round picks George Kittle and Dre Greenlaw. However, they have also had major flops in the first round, like Trey Lance and Solomon Thomas.
Receiver Danny Gray and tight end Cameron Latu, both third-round picks in recent years, were among the 49ers' roster cuts on Tuesday, leading to increased criticism of the team's success in this draft phase.
Only the players listed in all caps by Cam Inman of the Bay Area News Group remain on the 49ers' current 53-man roster. With Gray's release, only Fred Warner remains of the 49ers' nine third-round draft picks from 2017 to 2022.
Granted, even if the rest were busts, the fact that you can get a player of Warner's caliber at a third-round price can't be overstated. According to Pro Football Reference's wAV metric, the three-time All-Pro is the most valuable player selected in the third round in 2018 – and the third most valuable in the entire draft.
Then again, quantity is arguably just as important as quality in the NFL, so the success of the 49ers' recent third-rounders is especially important in extending their Super Bowl window.
Safety Ji'Ayir Brown and kicker Jake Moody have shown positive results early in their careers, while offensive lineman Dominick Puni has earned a starting spot in his first NFL season. If all three can be reliable starters despite cheap rookie contracts, San Francisco will gain much-needed flexibility elsewhere on the roster to pay stars like Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk.
And while the 49ers have been inconsistent in the third round, Lynch and the front office have made up for it with their success on the third day of the draft. Teams can expect to draft about two Pro Bowl-caliber players per decade in the fourth through seventh rounds.
San Francisco has already selected three Pro Bowl players on day three since 2018: Kittle, Purdy and safety Talanoa Hufanga. They have also found several other above-average players in those rounds, including Greenlaw and cornerback Deommodore Lenoir, to name a few.
Ultimately, don't overreact if you have a few misses in a given round. After all, drafting players isn't easy, especially in the later rounds. Although they've been inconsistent, the 49ers have been successful in signing high-level talent that makes up for earlier mistakes.
If anything, fans should perhaps hope that Lynch, Shanahan and Co. get a lot of last-minute picks in the future rather than signing first-rounders.
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