Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, August 28, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: NY Mets are 22-6 (78.6%, +15.32 units) in last 28 games vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
– The ROI on this trend is 54.7%.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (+105 at AZ)
Trend: Joe Musgrove is 2-7 (-5.75 units) vs STL in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO (-125 at STL)
Trend: NYY worse vs. LH starters (17-21, -20.24 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-198 at WSH)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 174-168 run (+34.73 units, ROI: 10.1%).
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+124 at DET)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 162 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 8/27 and these teams are 91-71 for +11.66 units.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-155 vs. KC)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:
– Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettor looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-155 vs. KC), PHILADELPHIA (-108 vs. HOU), LA DODGERS (-110 vs. BAL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): NONE YET TODAY (*watch for NY YANKEES at WSH, -198 currently)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, CINCINNATI, NY YANKEES, ATLANTA, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-166 vs. CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and a ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): TOR-BOS (o/u at 9)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 102-55 for -19.82 units and an ROI of -12.6%.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-198 at WSH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 296-353 record for -13.35 units (ROI -2.1%). This is below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it, especially after back-to-back winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+140 at PIT), MIAMI (+110 at COL), TAMPA BAY (+150 at SEA), TORONTO (+124 at BOS), OAKLAND (+102 at CIN), LA DODGERS (-110 vs. BAL)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick em’) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 265-279 record, for +10.93 units (ROI 2%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+140 at PIT), MIAMI (+110 at COL), TORONTO (+124 at BOS), OAKLAND (+102 at CIN), LA DODGERS (-110 vs. BAL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 163-192 for -19.84 units. The three-game teams are 83-85 for +1.59 units.
System Matches: 3+ games – FADE KANSAS CITY (+130 at CLE), FADE PHILADELPHIA (-105 vs HOU)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 162 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 8/27 and these teams are 91-71 for +11.66 units.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-155 vs KC)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1652-1540 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -185.21 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): MIAMI (+110 at COL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1558-1995 (43.9%) for -178.09 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-112 at PHI), LA ANGELS (+124 at DET), NY YANKEES (-198 at WSH)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3327-2915 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -436.45 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT, BOSTON, MINNESOTA, ST LOUIS, COLORADO
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 476-406 (54%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +16.47 units, for an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-148 vs. KC), SEATTLE (-180 vs. TB)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 303-152 (66.6%) for +38.92 units and an ROI of 8.6%!
System Matches (PLAY): COLORADO (-130 vs. MIA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 174-168 run (+34.73 units, ROI: 10.1%).
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+124 at DET)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 145-160 (+5.14 units, ROI: 1.7%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+124 at DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 131-100 (+17.22 units, ROI: 7.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (-148 vs. LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 179-120 in their last 299 tries (+20.56 units, ROI: 6.9%).
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (-148 vs. LAA)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY METS +105 (+16 diff), TAMPA BAY +150 (+19 diff), TORONTO +124 (+15 diff), LA DODGERS -110 (+31 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS -175 (+30 diff), ATLANTA -135 (+20 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-STL OVER 8 (+1.0), NYY-WSH OVER 9 (+1.0), TOR-BOS OVER 9 (+0.9), ATL-MIN OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-CIN UNDER 10.5 (-1.4), LAA-DET UNDER 9 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(953) SAN DIEGO (76-58) at (954) ST LOUIS (65-67)
Trend: SD solid bet on the road (38-26, +10.74 units)
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-125 at STL)
(955) SAN FRANCISCO (67-66) at (956) MILWAUKEE (75-56)
Trend: MIL worse vs. LH starters (16-19, -6.57 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-166 vs. SF)
(957) MIAMI (48-84) at (958) COLORADO (49-84)
Trend: COL not good vs. NL East/Central (16-34, -11.52 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (-130 vs. MIA)
(959) NEW YORK-NL (69-63) at (960) ARIZONA (75-57)
Trend: AZ trending Over at home (39-24 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(961) KANSAS CITY (75-58) at (962) CLEVELAND (75-58)
Trend: KC slight Under during the day (18-28 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(963) TAMPA BAY (66-66) at (964) SEATTLE (67-66)
Trend: SEA trending Under at home (22-42 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
(965) LOS ANGELES-AL (54-78) at (966) DETROIT (67-66)
Trend: LAA not good vs. AL Central/East (16-37, -16.51 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+130 at DET)
(967) TORONTO (65-69) at (968) BOSTON (68-64)
Trend: TOR heavy Over in divisional play (29-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(971) HOUSTON (70-62) at (972) PHILADELPHIA (78-54)
Trend: OVER the total is 4-0 when PHI is a HOME underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 10)
(973) OAKLAND (57-75) at (974) CINCINNATI (63-69)
Trend: OAK more Under at nigjt (28-44 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 10.5)
(975) NEW YORK-AL (78-55) at (976) WASHINGTON (60-73)
Trend: NYY worse vs. LH starters (17-21, -20.24 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-198 at WSH)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(953) SAN DIEGO (76-58) at (954) ST LOUIS (65-67)
Trend: Joe Musgrove is 2-7 (-5.75 units) vs. STL in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO (-125 at STL)
(959) NEW YORK-NL (69-63) at (960) ARIZONA (75-57)
Trend: Luis Severino is 7-16 (-7.47 units) as an underdog in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (+105 at AZ)
(975) NEW YORK-AL (78-55) at (976) WASHINGTON (60-73)
Trend: Carlos Rodon not good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 1-10 (-18.20 units) in the last six seasons
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-198 at WSH)
Trend: Carlos Rodon is 6-11 (-10.50 units) in the last 17 road starts vs. NL teams
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-198 at WSH)
(979) BALTIMORE (77-56) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (78-54)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 8-2 vs. AL teams (+4.64 units) since 2019
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-110 vs. BAL)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #4: NY Mets at Arizona, Tue 8/27-Thu 8/29
Trend: NY Mets are 22-6 (78.6%, +15.32 units) in the last 28 games vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
– The ROI on this trend is 54.7%.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (+105 at AZ)
Series #14: San Diego at St Louis, Mon 8/26-Thu 8/29
Trend: Home teams are 14-6 (70%, +6.79 units) in the last 20 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 34%
System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (+105 vs. SD)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, 8/30)
