Following the AfD's success in the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the embattled traffic light parties are discussing the consequences in Berlin. The party leaders are answering questions together with the leading candidates from the states. Difficult government formation is looming in the states. In both Saxony and Thuringia, the CDU will provide the prime minister. However, it is unclear which alliances could make this possible.
Formation of government in Thuringia: CDU needs BSW – and the Left
In Thuringia, the AfD is well ahead, but will probably not be able to form a government because the other parties have ruled out a coalition with it. There had been hopes that there might be enough for an unprecedented alliance between the CDU, the Sahra Wagenknecht coalition (BSW) and the SPD, but then the seats in the state parliament were tied: 44 for the possible three-party coalition on the one hand and 44 seats for the possible opposition of the AfD and the Left on the other.
Such an alliance would therefore also depend on the Left. The co-chairman of the Thuringian Left, Christian Schaft, told the dpa that if tolerance negotiations or something similar were necessary, his party would go into these talks “openly”. For the CDU, such a model discussion would probably mean, because the party has so far ruled out an alliance with the Left with a resolution at the federal party conference.
CDU regional leader Mario Voigt did not want to commit himself to whether a government led by him would be tolerated by the Left. He initially announced that he wanted to join the SPD and was also “open to discussion” with the BSW. CDU politicians in particular are bothered by the fact that Wagenknecht was a member of the GDR state party SED and later a leading figure in the communist platform in the Left. A coalition would be possible, however, because according to an incompatibility resolution, the CDU is not allowed to form a coalition with either the AfD or the Left – but the BSW is not covered by this.
Previous black-green-red alliance in Saxony without majority
In Saxony, it is not nearly enough for a new edition of the CDU-led government with the Greens and SPD of Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer. Unlike in Thuringia, an alliance of the CDU, BSW and SPD had a majority. Kretschmer said that his CDU was ready to take on responsibility again and form a stable government. None of the other parties will form a coalition with the AfD, which is also classified as definitely right-wing extremist in Saxony.
That evening there were protests against the AfD – including in Hamburg.Image of the future/imago
AfD is the strongest force: The results of the state elections in Thuringia
According to the preliminary results, for the first time in post-war history, the AfD, a party classified as right-wing extremist, became the strongest force in a state election in Thuringia – with 32.8 percent (2019: 23.4 percent). The CDU with top candidate Mario Voigt landed at 23.6 percent (21.7).
The new coalition led by Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) achieved 15.8 percent from the outset – and thus overtook Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow's Left Party, which only achieved 13.1 percent (31.0). The traffic light parties recorded heavy losses: the SPD recorded its worst result in a state election since the founding of the Federal Republic with 6.1 percent (8.2). The Greens were voted out of parliament with 3.2 percent (5.2), as did the FDP with 1.1 percent (5.0).
The AfD will receive 32 seats in the Thuringian state parliament (22). The CDU will have 23 seats (21), the BSW 15. The Left Party will have 12 seats (29). The SPD will have 6 representatives (8). Around 1.66 million people were called to vote. Voter turnout was 73.6 percent, significantly higher than in 2019 – then it was 64.9 percent.
CDU remains leading party: The results of the state elections in Saxony
In Saxony, the CDU is the leading party with 31.9 percent (2019: 32.1 percent) according to preliminary results. The AfD is just behind with 30.6 percent (27.5). The BSW, a split from the Left, achieved 11.8 percent from the start. The SPD is at 7.3 percent (7.7). The Left achieved 4.5 percent – and thus less than half the share of the vote from five years ago (10.4). However, it won two direct mandates in Leipzig and is therefore represented in the state parliament according to its second vote result, although it is below the five percent hurdle.
Michael Kretschmer (CDU), incumbent Prime Minister of Saxony and top candidate, waves on stage after the announcement of the first projections.Robert Michael/dpa
The Greens are entering parliament again with 5.1 percent (8.6). The FDP missed out on a place in parliament – as it did in the last two state elections. In the Saxon state parliament, the AfD will receive 41 seats (38), the CDU 42 seats (45). The BSW has 15 representatives. The SPD will receive 9 seats (10), the Greens will have 6 seats (12), as will the Left (14). The Free Voters also have one representative in parliament, who won a direct mandate. Around 3.3 million citizens were called to vote. Voter turnout was 74.4 percent. In 2019, it was 66.5 percent.
Devastating result in the state election: blow for the traffic light coalition at the federal level
The results are a major setback for the traffic light coalition parties at the federal level. SPD leader Saskia Esken is demanding that Chancellor Olaf Scholz make it clearer that the SPD is leading the government in Berlin. The FDP has fired back from party vice-chair Wolfgang Kubicki, who wrote on Platform X that the traffic light coalition had lost its legitimacy. Green Party leader Omid Nouripour blamed “unnecessary disputes” in the traffic light coalition for the poor results. However, it is considered unlikely that any of the three parties will be placed early at the federal level, even given the poor poll ratings.
The CDU must answer the difficult question of whether and how there can be cooperation with the BSW and the Left Party. Party leader Friedrich Merz initially rejected cooperation with the BSW. After protests from election campaigners in the east, Merz backed down and declared the question to be a matter for state politicians. ■
